Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective

Inflation-linked bond markets have experienced significant growth in recent years. This growth is somewhat surprising, for inflation-linked bonds cannot be considered a financial innovation and their development has taken place in a period of historically low global inflation and inflation expectations. In this context, the purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a selective survey of the key arguments for and against the issuance of inflation-linked debt, and some of the factors that help to understand their recent growth. Second, it illustrates the use of these instruments to better monitor investors’ inflation expectations and growth prospects from a central bank perspective.

An introduction to the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters

This paper provides a detailed overview of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a quarterly survey of euro area key macroeconomic variables conducted by the European Central Bank since 1999. Its purpose is to provide the necessary information for anyone interested in analysing or reporting the survey results. First, its motivations, the panel composition and the structure of the questionnaire are thoroughly explained. The results of the first 18 survey rounds for the three variables covered ? HICP inflation, the real GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate ? for the different horizons are then analysed in detail, including the information content of the uncertainty surrounding those forecast on the basis of the reported probability distributions for each of the variables and horizons. Finally, a comparison to other similar surveys, both for the euro area and the US economy, is also provided.

Inflation Trends in Asia : Implications for Central Banks

Trend inflation estimates for 12 of the largest Asian economies over 1995-2018 over important insights on inflation dynamics and inflation expectations. The disinflationary shocks that hit the region since 2014 were partly transitory, but their effects have been different depending on the behaviour of trend inflation in each country. Countries with relatively high inflation (India, Philippines, Indonesia) benefited, and some were impacted very mildly (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia). Among countries with inflation below target, in those with trend inflation low but constant (Australia, New Zealand) low inflation maybe lasting, but temporary, while those in which trend inflation has declined (South Korea, Thailand) risk low inflation to become entrenched and a de-anchoring of expectations. This diverse international evidence could over important lessons for monetary policy worldwide

Evaluación de dosis de silicio en el rendimiento del pepino hibrido (cucumis sativus l) variedad stonewall f1, Lamas – San Martin

This paper titled "Evaluation of silicon doses on the performance of hybrid cucumber (Cucumis sativus L) variety STONEWALL F1, Lamas - San Martin" aimed to determine the optimal dose of silicon foliar application in hybrid cucumber variety STONEWALL F1 and perform economic analysis of the treatments under study, for which we evaluated 4 treatments: T0 (no application), T1 (1.2 l/ha), T2 (1.8 l/ha) and T3 (2.4 l/ha). The parameters evaluated were: percentage of emergence, plant height, number of fruits produced per plant, number of fruit set per plant, fruit length, fruit diameter, fruit weight, yield t/ha, and finally conducted an economic analysis of all treatments studied. The major findings were: T3 treatment (2.4 Liters of Silicon x ha-1), was the one who threw the biggest and best average values of productivity indicators being these of 64.96 fruits per plant, fruit set per plant 12.82, 10.47 fruit diameter cm, 26.10 cm fruit length and weight of 575.67 g per fruit harvested respectively T0 treatment (without silicon application), was the one who threw the lowest average values, being able to determine that as reduced dose of silicon in cucumber plants also decreased the average values of productivity indicators and treatment they received higher performance (249.45 t/ha), net income (S/.9 361.40) and the highest percentage in return (60.07%) was the T3, then T2, T1 and T0 yields of tn.ha-1 220.39, 167.07 and 119.01 t/ha respectively and hence lower values of net income and percentage of profitability.El presente trabajo de investigación titulado “Evaluación de dosis de silicio en el rendimiento del pepino hibrido (cucumis sativus l) variedad STONEWALL f1,Lamas – San Martin” tuvo como objetivos determinar la dosis óptima de aplicación de silicio foliar, en pepino híbrido Variedad STONEWALL F1 y realizar el análisis económico de los tratamientos en estudio, para lo cual se evaluaron 4 tratamientos: T0 (sin aplicación), T1 (1.2 l/ha), T2 (1.8 l/ha) y T3 (2.4 l/ha). Los parámetros evaluados fueron: porcentaje de emergencia, altura de planta, número de frutos producidos por planta, número de frutos cuajados por planta, longitud de frutos, diámetro de frutos, peso de frutos, rendimiento en t/ha, y finalmente se realizó un análisis económico de todos los tratamientos estudiados. Las conclusiones más relevantes fueron: El Tratamiento T3 (2.4 Litros de Silicio x ha- 1), fue el que arrojó los mejores y mayores valores promedio en los indicadores de productividad siendo estos de 64.96 frutos por planta, 12.82 frutos cuajados por planta, 10.47 cm de diámetro del fruto, 26.10 cm de longitud del fruto y un peso de 575.67 g por fruto cosechado respectivamente; el tratamiento T0 (Sin aplicación de silicio), fue el que arrojo los valores promedios más bajos, pudiéndose determinar que conforme se reducía la dosis de silicio en las plantas de pepino, también disminuían los valores promedio de los indicadores de productividad y el tratamiento que obtuvo mayor rendimiento (249.45 t/ha), utilidad neta (S/.9 361.40), y el mayor porcentaje en rentabilidad (60.07%) fue el T3, seguidamente de T2, T1 y T0 que obtuvieron rendimientos de 220.39 t/ha, 167.07 t/ha y 119.01 t/ha respectivamente y por ende menores valores de utilidad neta y porcentaje de rentabilidad.Tesi

A data generator for covid-19 patients’ care requirements inside hospitals

[EN] A Spanish version of the article is provided (see section before references). This paper presents the generation of a plausible data set related to the needs of COVID-19 patients with severe or critical symptoms. Possible illness’ stages were proposed within the context of medical knowledge as of January 2021. The parameters chosen in this data set were customized to fit the population data of the Valencia region (Spain) with approximately 2.5 million inhabitants. They were based on the evolution of the pandemic between September 2020 and March 2021, a period that included two complete waves of the pandemic. Contrary to expectation and despite the European and national transparency laws (BOE-A2013-12887, 2013; European Parliament and Council of the European Union, 2019), the actual COVID-19 pandemic-related data, at least in Spain, took considerable time to be updated and made available (usually a week or more). Moreover, some relevant data necessary to develop and validate hospital bed management models were not publicly accessible. This was either because these data were not collected, because public agencies failed to make them public (despite having them indexed in their databases), the data were processed within indicators and not shown as raw data, or they simply published the data in a format that was difficult to process (e.g., PDF image documents versus CSV tables). Despite the potential of hospital information systems, there were still data that were not adequately captured within these systems. Moreover, the data collected in a hospital depends on the strategies and practices specific to that hospital or health system. This limits the generalization of "real" data, and it encourages working with "realistic" or plausible data that are clean of interactions with local variables or decisions (Gunal, 2012; Marin-Garcia et al., 2020). Besides, one can parameterize the model and define the data structure that would be necessary to run the model without delaying till the real data become available. Conversely, plausible data sets can be generated from publicly available information and, later, when real data become available, the accuracy of the model can be evaluated (Garcia-Sabater and Maheut, 2021). This work opens lines of future research, both theoretical and practical. From a theoretical point of view, it would be interesting to develop machine learning tools that, by analyzing specific data samples in real hospitals, can identify the parameters necessary for the automatic prototyping of generators adapted to each hospital. Regarding the lines of research applied, it is evident that the formalism proposed for the generation of sound patients is not limited to patients affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. The generation of heterogeneous patients can represent the needs of a specific population and serve as a basis for studying complex health service delivery systems.[ES] En este trabajo se presenta cómo se ha generado un conjunto de datos verosímiles relacionados con las necesidades de pacientes covid-19 con síntomas severe or critical. Se considerarán las etapas posibles con los conocimientos médicos a fecha de enero de 2021. Los parámetros elegidos en este data set están personalizados para adecuarse a los valores poblacionales de la región de Valencia (Spain), unos 2.5 Millones de habitantes y la evolución de la pandemia entre los meses de septiembre 2020 y marzo 2021, un periodo de tiempo que contemple dos olas completas de pandemia.En contra de lo que cabría esperar, a pesar de la ley de transparencia europea y nacional (BOE-A-2013-12887, 2013; Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo de la Unión Europea, 2019), los datos reales relacionados con la pandemia covid-19, al menos en España, tardan mucho en actualizarse y estar disponibles (normalmente una semana o más días). Además, algunos datos relevantes para trabajar los modelos de gestión de camas de hospital no están accesibles públicamente. Bien porque no se hayan recogido esos datos, o porque los organismos públicos no los ofrecen (a pesar de tenerlos indexados en sus bases de datos), o los ofrecen camuflados en indicadores procesados y no muestran los datos en bruto, o simplemente los publican en un formato de difícil reutilización (por ejemplo, en documentos PDF en lugar de en tablas CSV). A pesar de que los sistemas de información de los hospitales son bastante potentes, siguen existiendo datos que ni siquiera están recogidos adecuadamente en el sistema de información de salud.Por otra parte, los datos recogidos en un hospital dependen de las estrategias y practicas propias de ese hospital o sistema de salud. Este efecto limita la generalización de los datos “reales” y es necesario trabajar con datos “realistas” o verosímiles que están limpios de interacciones con variables o decisiones locales (Gunal, 2012; Marin-Garcia et al., 2020). Por un lado, se puede parametrizar el modelo y definir la estructura de datos que sería necesaria para ejecutar el modelo con datos reales. Por otro lado, se pueden generar conjuntos de datos verosímiles a partir de la información pública disponible y, posteriormente, cuando se disponga de los datos reales evaluar la bondad del modelo (Garcia-Sabater & Maheut, 2021).Marin-Garcia, JA.; Ruiz, A.; Julien, M.; Garcia-Sabater, JP. (2021). A data generator for covid-19 patients’ care requirements inside hospitals. WPOM-Working Papers on Operations Management. 12(1):76-115. https://doi.org/10.4995/wpom.1533276115121Alexander, G. L. (2007). The nurse-patient trajectory framework. Medinfo. MEDINFO, 12(Pt 2), 910- 914.Belciug, S., Bejinariu, S. I., & Costin, H. (2020). An artificial immune system approach for a multicompartment queuing model for improving medical resources and inpatient bed occupancy in pandemics. 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Clinical characteristics of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Spain: Results from the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. Revista Clinica Espanola, 220(8), 480-494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rce.2020.07.003Castelnuovo, F., Marchese, V., Cristini, G., Crosato, V., Pennati, F., Renisi, G., Izzo, I., Paraninfo, G., Van Hauwermeiren, E., & Castelli, F. (2020). Discharge ward during the sars-cov-2 pandemic: An effective way to increase patient turnover when human resources are scarce. Infezioni in Medicina, 28(4), 539-544. https://doi.org/10.1007/s15010-020-01522-4Celeux, G., Lavergne, C., Vernaz, Y., Celeux, G., Lavergne, C., Vernaz, Y., Material, A., & Censored, D. (2006). Assessing Material Aging from Doubly Censored Data : Weibull Distribution vs . Poisson Process To cite this version : HAL Id : inria-00072799 Assessing material aging from doubly censored data : Weibull distribution vs . Poisson process apport. [Research Report] RR-3857, INRIA. 2000. inria-00072799.Claudio, D., Cosgriff, V., Nino, V., & Valladares, L. (2021). An Agile Standardized Work Procedure for Cleaning the Operating Room. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 14, in press. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/jiem.3440CNE -Centro Nacional de Epidemiología. (2020). Información científico-técnica, enfermedad por coronavirus, COVID-19 (actualizado 20201112).Comtois, D. (2021). summarytools: Tools to Quickly and Neatly Summarize Data.Corbin, J. M., & Strauss, A. L. (1988). Unending Work and Care: Managing Chronic Illness at Home. Jossey-Bass Inc.Daniel, P., Mecklenburg, M., Massiah, C., Joseph, M. A., Wilson, C., Parmar, P., Rosengarten, S., Maini, R., Kim, J., Oomen, A., & Zehtabchi, S. (2021). Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation versus endotracheal intubation in treatment of COVID-19 patients requiring ventilatory support. American Journal of Emergency Medicine, 43, 103-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2021.01.068Dominguez-Lara, S. A. (2018). Odds-ratios and their interpretation as effect size in research. In Educacion Medica (Vol. 19, Issue 1, pp. 65-66). Fundacion Educacion Medica. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.edumed.2017.01.008ECDP. (2020). Guidance for discharge and ending isolation in the context of widespread community transmission of COVID-19-first update Scope of this document. In European Centre for Disease Prevention (Issue April, pp. 1-8).Epstein, R. H., & Dexter, F. (2020). A Predictive Model for Patient Census and Ventilator Requirements at Individual Hospitals During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Preliminary Technical Report. Cureus. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.8501European center for disease prevention and control. (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK - seventh update. 2019 (March).Fowler, R., Hatchette, T., Salvadori, M., Baclic, O., Volling, C., Murthy, S., Emeriaud, G., Money, D., Brooks, J., Decou, M., & Ofner, M. (2020). Clinical management of patients with COVID-19: Second interim guidance. Canadian Critical Care Society and Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease (AMMI) Canada, 1-67.Garcia-Sabater, J. P., & Maheut, J. (2021). Introducción al Modelado Matematico, Nota Técnica. RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional UPV. https://doi.org/http://hdl.handle.net/10251/158555Garcia-Sabater, J. P., Maheut, J., Ruiz, A., & Garcia-Sabater, J. J. (2020). A framework for capacity and operations planning in services organizations employing workers with intellectual disabilities. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(22), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229713Generalitat Valenciana. Conselleria de Sanitat Universal i Salut Pública. (2019). Memoria de gestión conselleria de sanitat universal i salut pública 2019. 14493-14496.Generalitat Valenciana. (2018). Memoria de Gestión de la Conselleria de Sanitat Universal i Salut Pública.Guan, W., Ni, Z., Hu, Y., Liang, W., Ou, C., He, J., Liu, L., Shan, H., Lei, C., Hui, D. S. C., Du, B., Li, L., Zeng, G., Yuen, K.-Y., Chen, R., Tang, C., Wang, T., Chen, P., Xiang, J., … Zhong, N. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(18), 1708-1720. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032Gunal, M. M. (2012). A guide for building hospital simulation models. Health Systems, 1(1), 17-25. https://doi.org/10.1057/hs.2012.8Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B., & Anderson, R. E. (2009). Multivariate data analysis (7th edition). Prentice Hall. Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., Zhang, L., Fan, G., Xu, J., Gu, X., Cheng, Z., Yu, T., Xia, J., Wei, Y., Wu, W., Xie, X., Yin, W., Li, H., Liu, M., … Cao, B. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet, 395(10223), 497- 506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5Lagarda-Leyva, E. A., & Ruiz, A. (2019). A Systems Thinking Model to Support Long-Term Bearability of the Healthcare System: The Case of the Province of Quebec. Sustainability, 11(24), 7028. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247028Manninen, K. (2020). Typical progress of covid-19. Marin-Garcia, J. A. (2015). Publishing in two phases for focused research by means of "research collaborations." WPOM-Working Papers on Operations Management, 6(2), 76. https://doi.org/10.4995/wpom.v6i2.4459Marin-Garcia, J. A., Bonavia, T., & Losilla, J.-M. (2020). Changes in the Association between European Workers' Employment Conditions and Employee Well-Being in 2005, 2010 and 2015. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(3), 1048. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17031048Marin-Garcia, J. A., Garcia-Sabater, J. P., Ruiz, A., Maheut, J., & Garcia-Sabater, J. J. (2020). Operations Management at the service of health care management: Example of a proposal for action research to plan and schedule health resources in scenarios derived from the COVID-19 outbreak. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 13(2), 213. https://doi.org/10.3926/jiem.3190Marin-Garcia, J. A., Vidal-Carreras, P. I., Garcia Sabater, J. J., & Escribano-Martinez, J. (2019). Protocol: Value Stream Maping in Healthcare. A systematic literature review. WPOM-Working Papers on Operations Management, 10(2), 36. https://doi.org/10.4995/wpom.v10i2.12297Ministerio De Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad. (2017). Hábitos de Vida Informe Anual del Sistema Nacional de salud 2016 (INFORMES,). MINISTERIO DE SANIDAD, SERVICIOS SOCIALES E IGUALDAD.Mun, J. (2008). Appendix C. Understanding and Choosing the Right Probability Distributions. 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The BMJ, 368. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m606Zheng, Z., Peng, F., Xu, B., Zhao, J., Liu, H., Peng, J., Li, Q., Jiang, C., Zhou, Y., Liu, S., Ye, C., Zhang, P., Xing, Y., Guo, H., & Tang, W. (2020). Risk factors of critical & mortal COVID-19 cases: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis. In Journal of Infection (Vol. 81, Issue 2, pp. e16- e25). W.B. Saunders Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.04.02

La influencia de la actividad física en la fluidez cognitiva en niños de 10 a 12 años

La fluidez cognitiva es la capacidad mental que permite producir un cierto número de soluciones ante un determinado problema. Las personas que tienen una gran fluidez cognitiva son capaces de resolver el mismo problema de muchas maneras diferentes. Esta capacidad nos ayuda a elegir la solución más adecuada a nuestras necesidades. Uno de los factores que influyen su desarrollo es la experiencia vivida ante diferentes situaciones que hemos tenido que enfrentar con anterioridad. Esta experiencia generalmente requiere alguna actividad motora, por lo tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar si existe una relación entre la fluidez cognitiva y la cantidad de actividad física realizada por los niños en los cursos finales de educación primaria. En este estudio participaron 117 estudiantes, 64 niños y 53 niñas, con edades comprendidas entre 10 y 12 años, de una escuela de educación primaria de enseñanza pública en la ciudad de Málaga (España). Para la evaluación de la fluidez cognitiva, se utilizó la forma B de la Prueba de pensamiento creativo de Torrance (TTCT). El cuestionario del Perfil de Actividad Juvenil (YAP) se utilizó para estimar la cantidad de actividad física que los niños hacen normalmente. Otras variables antropométricas como la altura, el peso y el índice de masa corporal (IMC) se calcularon mediante un estadiómetro y técnicas de bioimpedancia. Los resultados obtenidos mostraron diferencias significativas en la fluidez cognitiva entre los niños que realizaron una actividad física baja en comparación con aquellos que realizaron la mayor cantidad de actividad física. Podemos decir que la práctica de actividad física habitual puede ser un elemento que favorece la fluidez cognitiva que se desarrolla durante la infancia. Se requiere investigación adicional para comprender qué factores pueden determinar el nivel de desarrollo de capacidades cognitivas durante la infancia y cuáles son las formas más efectivas de mejorarlas.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte a través de las ayudas para la Formación de Profesorado Universitario (FPU17/01554)

Operations Management at the service of health care management: Example of a proposal for action research to plan and schedule health resources in scenarios derived from the COVID-19 outbreak

[EN] With this work, we intend to promote research on the application of Operations Management tools in order to assist with decision-making in health crisis situations. During the first six weeks of the COVID-19 crisis in Spain, we have contacted a large number of hospital and health department managers in the Valencian Community and other regions of Spain. The result is that very few, at least when contact was made and at the time of writing this article, had consulted staff members in the Operations Management area for advice on this situation, and they are quite reluctant to do so. This is in spite of the fact that some medical sources also consider this crisis to be one of resources, not merely a medical crisis. Our opinion is that Operations Management can make a useful and valuable contribution to anticipate and improve the management of scarce resources, even in times of crisis. If those responsible for public health or heads of hospitals do not see this usefulness, then there is a huge gap between research and practice in Operations Management and what is transmitted to the healthcare sector. Our aim is to help reduce this gap.Marin-Garcia, JA.; García Sabater, JP.; Ruiz, A.; Maheut, J.; García Sabater, JJ. (2020). Operations Management at the service of health care management: Example of a proposal for action research to plan and schedule health resources in scenarios derived from the COVID-19 outbreak. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management. 13(2):213-227. https://doi.org/10.3926/jiem.3190S21322713

Cambio de uso de suelo en una microcuenca del altiplano mexicano

El territorio mexicano se caracteriza por una amplia diversidad ambiental debido a diversos factores fisiográficos (ubicación geográfica, relieve, clima, tipo de suelo, vegetación). En México, los procesos de cambio en el uso del suelo se derivan de la interacción de amplios factores geográficos, económicos, políticos, sociales, demográficos y culturales. El objetivo de este trabajo fue identificar y evaluar los cambios en el uso del suelo ocurridos en la microcuenca del río San José, ubicado en los municipios de San Felipe del Progreso y San José del Rincón, en el Altiplano Mexicano, entre los años 2000 y 2008. Se utilizó el software Arc Gis y funciones matemáticas para calcular los cambios de uso de suelo y evaluar la pérdida de áreas boscosas próximas a zonas agrícolas. El cambio más significativo se presenta sobre áreas forestales transformadas en agricultura de temporal